The MJO and Equatorial Waves in the CFSv2
Dr. Carl Schreck
North Carolina State University
Wednesday July 24, 2019, 12 PM
ESSIC Conference Room 4102, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740
Abstract:
The MJO and equatorial waves are the dominant modes of subseasonal tropical variability. Since 2011, ncics.org/mjo has provided diagnostics for identifying and predicting these modes. It uniquely applies Fourier filtering to a blend of observations and CFSv2 forecasts. These diagnostics are served to more than 500 monthly users, including CPC, NHC, the 14th Weather Squadron, the private sector, and meteorological agencies in more than 20 countries. This seminar will showcase the diagnostics available on ncics.org/mjo.
Similar diagnostics can also be applied to CFSv2 hindcasts to understand the sources of skill within the model. This seminar will demonstrate that most of the CFSv2’s rainfall skill is derived from low-frequency stationary patterns. The MJO provides some added skill in Weeks 1–2, but most of the model’s simulated higher frequency variability actually detracts from the skill after Week 1.
Bio-sketch:
Dr. Schreck investigates tropical weather and its impacts around the globe. He is particularly interested in identifying and predicting the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and equatorial waves. Dr. Schreck engages with partners in private industry to explore how these systems can improve long-range forecasts of weather risk over the United States, including hurricanes, extreme precipitation, and extreme temperatures. He also partners with forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center to improve extended forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis and tropical rainfall. Dr. Schreck joined CISESS at NCSU in 2010 after completing his PhD at the University at Albany.
Contact:
If you would like an individual meeting with Carl before or after the seminar, please contact Debra Baker (drb@umd.edu, 301.405.5397) for an appointment. Dr. Berbery hosts the seminar.
Webinar info:
Event site: http://go.umd.edu/schreck
Event number: 732 303 563
Event password: essic
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