Earth System Model Projections of the Future of Global Marine Fisheries

Prof. Daniele Bianchi
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of California, Los Angeles
Monday October 31, 2022, 2 PM ET

Abstract:

The global wild marine fish harvest increased fourfold between 1950 and its current peak, but is
projected to decline in a future ocean, reflecting interactions between human, ecological and climate
drivers. In this talk, I will examine these interactions in an Earth System perspective, using a coupled
fishery-economics model. I will use a combination of hindcast simulations and future scenarios to
highlight the major role of economic drivers, with climate change increasingly important under effective
management. I will then discuss results from the recent Fishery Model Intercomparison Project
(FishMIP), which suggest pervasive biomass reduction and amplification of this decline at higher
trophic levels under high emission scenarios. I will conclude by examining sources of uncertainty in
future fishery projections, showing a dominant role for model uncertainty, and ongoing efforts to reduce
it.

Biosketch:

Daniele Bianchi is an assistant professor at University of California Los Angeles. His research focuses
on the interactions between ocean physics, chemistry and marine life, using a combination of
observational syntheses and numerical models. Specific focuses of his research are oxygen minimum
zones and the ocean carbon and nitrogen cycle, the California Current System, and fisheries. Contact:
dbianchi@atmos.ucla.edu. Webpage: https://dept.atmos.ucla.edu/dbianchi

Webinar:

Event site: https://go.umd.edu/dbianchi
Zoom Webinar: https://go.umd.edu/dbianchiwebinar

Zoom Meeting ID: 993 9896 8645
Zoom password: essic

US Toll: +13017158592
Global call-in numbers: https://umd.zoom.us/u/aMElEpvNu

For IT assistance:
Cazzy Medley: cazzy@umd.edu

Resources:
Seminar schedule & archive: https://go.umd.edu/essicseminar
Seminar Google calendar: https://go.umd.edu/essicseminarcalendar
Seminar recordings on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/ESSICUMD