Patterns in the Peaks: Connecting Mountain Snow and Streamflow
Prof. Jessica Lundquist
University of Washington
Monday October 20, 2025, 2 PM ET
Abstract:
Mountains provide essential water for crops and cities, but published estimates of total water stored in major mountain ranges vary by a factor of five. Some of these estimates are terribly wrong, but how do we know which to trust? Precipitation and temperature both change rapidly over complex terrain, and sampling is difficult in remote and rugged regions. Despite this complexity and uncertainty, seasonal runoff forecasting from snow-covered mountains is often quite skillful. Since the 1930’s, humans with snow depth probes have predicted spring and summer streamflow in the western United States. Despite dramatic changes in snow depth across both space and time, these index measurements have incredible skill because spatial patterns of snow accumulation are controlled by topography and repeat from one year to the next. Different spatial patterns control snowmelt and subsurface storage, but these also repeat each year. By studying these patterns, we can increase our predictive skills, but only if we are constantly vigilant to separate the good data from the bad, as mountains are renowned for breaking sensors, blocking radars, and baffling satellite-based sensors.
Biosketch:
Dr. Jessica Lundquist is a Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Washington. She earned her B.S. in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis, her M.S. in Oceanography from Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) at UC San Diego, and her Ph.D. in Oceanography also from SIO, focusing on diurnal cycles in mountain streamflow. Dr. Lundquist has received numerous honors, including the AGU Cryosphere Young Investigator Award (2008), the Water Resources Research Editor’s Choice Award (2014), the American Geophysical Union Ambassador Award (2024), AGU Fellow (2024), and the American Meteorological Society Horton Lectureship in Hydrology (2025).
Webinar:
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