Earth’s Ever-Changing Carbon Budget: The Latest Update

CISESS
February 3, 2026
Highlights

An international team of researchers, including ESSIC/CISESS Scientist Annika Jersild, presents a rigorous overview of the most recent state of Earth’s carbon budget in a paper published in the journal Earth System Science Data.

In the paper, they quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget, namely, fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, emissions from land-use change, CO2 removal not based on vegetation, total anthropogenic emissions, and atmospheric CO2, along with their uncertainties, with a strong focus on the recent period (since 1958, the onset of robust atmospheric CO2 measurements), the last decade (2014–2023), and the years 2023 and 2024. Ocean and land CO2 sinks are also analyzed.

The authors report that the global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31±0.1 ppm. Of interest given the recent high fire activity in both North America and South America, global fire CO2 emissions in 2024 have been 11–32% higher than the 2014–2023 average. A slew of other statistics are offered, with results disseminated to the broad stakeholder community via spreadsheets published by the Integrated Carbon Observation System Carbon Portal.

Citation: Friedlingstein, Pierre; Michael;Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra- Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng, 2025. Global carbon budget 2024. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17(3), 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025.

This article was put together by the CISESS coordinators based on scientist input.

Debra Baker

Debra Baker is the Coordinator for the Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS) at the University of Maryland. She received her M.S. in atmospheric science from the University of Maryland, College Park. Before joining ESSIC in 2013, she worked on air quality issues at the Maryland Department of the Environment. Debra also has a law degree from Harvard Law School.

Kate Cooney

Katherine Cooney is a part-time faculty assistant at the Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS). Kate received a B.S. in environmental science and policy from the University of Maryland (UMD), College Park. She later earned a M.S. in geology from UMD, while investigating the isotopic fractionation of precipitation nitrate under the guidance of Distinguished University Professor James Farquhar. After graduation, she worked as an air-quality specialist at the Mid Atlantic Regional Air Management Association in Baltimore, Maryland. While her family was stationed in Tokyo, Japan, she dedicated her time serving military families and the local community. She is grateful for the opportunity to return to earth system studies, supporting the CISESS Business Office and assisting the CISESS Coordinator Deb Baker since January 2021.